Some commodities-most notably, steel-will also play an enabling role across technologies requiring additional infrastructure. Requirements for additional supply will come not only from relatively large-volume raw materials-for example, copper for electrification and nickel for battery EVs, which are expected to see significant demand growth beyond their current applications-but also from relatively niche commodities, such as lithium and cobalt for batteries, tellurium for solar panels, and neodymium for the permanent magnets used both in wind power generation and EVs (Exhibit 1). No matter which decarbonization pathway we follow, there will be fundamental demand shifts-and these will change the metals and mining sector as we know it, creating new sources of value while shrinking others. Just as there are several possible trajectories through which the global economy can achieve its target of limiting warming to 1.5☌, there are corresponding technology mixes involving different raw-materials combinations that bring their own respective implications. Raw materials will be at the center of decarbonization efforts and electrification of the economy as we move from fossil fuels to wind and solar power generation, battery- and fuel-cell-based electric vehicles (EVs), and hydrogen production. While every sector in the global economy faces common pressures-such as stakeholder and investor demands to decarbonize their own operations- metals and mining companies have been presented with a special challenge of their own: supplying the critical inputs needed to drive the massive technological transition ahead.

Even as debate continues over whether the conference achieved enough, it is evident that the coming decade will be decisive for decarbonizing the economy. At the same time, another reality became apparent: net-zero commitments are outpacing the formation of supply chains, market mechanisms, financing models, and other solutions and structures needed to smooth the world’s decarbonization pathway.

Climate commitments made in Glasgow have entrenched the net-zero target of reducing global carbon emissions (aimed at preventing the planet from warming by more than 1.5☌) as a core principle for business. This article is a collaborative effort by Marcelo Azevedo, Magdalena Baczynska, Patricia Bingoto, Greg Callaway, Ken Hoffman, and Oliver Ramsbottom, representing views from McKinsey’s Metals & Mining Practice.īy the end of the November 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), it became clear that momentum had shifted.

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